The 90% Deal That Isn't 90%

There is a particular kind of sales opportunity that makes me nervous.

It is the deal that has been at 90% for six weeks.

Apparently it is almost done. The customer loves us. Everyone is positive. The paperwork is “with legal”. We are just waiting for one final approval.

Then month-end arrives and nothing happens.

The date moves. The probability stays at 90%.

Another month passes.

Still 90%.

At some point, 90% stops being a probability and becomes a place where deals go to hide.

Percentages are often emotional

One of the odd things about CRM probabilities is how quickly they become personal. Moving a deal from 80% back to 50% can feel like the salesperson is admitting they have done something wrong.

So opportunities tend to move in one direction.

Up.

The underlying customer position may have changed completely, but the CRM still carries the confidence of a conversation that happened two months ago.

That is why I prefer stage definitions based on customer evidence rather than seller enthusiasm.

A deal should not be 90% because the customer said, “This looks great.” It should be late-stage because something meaningful has happened: budget has been approved, the commercial route is clear, decision-makers are aligned, legal points are being resolved, and there is a credible path to signature.

“They love us” is not a milestone

I have heard some variation of that phrase throughout my career.

“They really like the solution.”

“The meeting went brilliantly.”

“We’re definitely their preferred option.”

All useful. None of them is a purchase order.

Customers can genuinely like your people, your proposal and your product and still not buy. Priorities change. Budgets disappear. Internal sponsors move jobs. Procurement introduces a process nobody mentioned. A board member asks why the project needs to happen this year.

The competitor is not always another supplier. Quite often it is simply do nothing.

That matters because we tend to underestimate it.

Ask what still has to go right

One question I like in a late-stage review is:

What still has to go right for us to win this?

It changes the conversation.

Instead of hearing all the reasons the deal is strong, you start hearing the remaining dependencies.

Finance needs to release the budget. The operations director has not signed off. Legal has raised two issues. The customer has not agreed an implementation date. The sponsor is supportive but cannot sign.

Now we have something useful to manage.

A late-stage deal should become more factual, not more optimistic

The closer a deal gets to a decision, the less interested I am in positive sentiment.

I want specifics.

Who signs? When? What is outstanding? Who could block it? What alternatives is the customer considering? What happens after verbal approval? How long does their internal process normally take?

That is not negativity. It is respect for the reality of complex buying.

A good forecast does not need every deal to be certain. It needs uncertainty to be visible.

So when I see something sitting at 90% for weeks, I do not ask, “Why hasn’t it closed?”

I ask, “What evidence do we have today that we didn’t have when it first became 90%?”

If the answer is none, the percentage is probably telling us more about ourselves than the customer.